Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 20, Raiders 18 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Chiefs win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 37.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game). The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game).
Chiefs' strong defense (5th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 14 and Chiefs by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chiefs by about 0.3.
More: Raiders schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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