Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 21, Chargers 16 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 18. That is a lean: Broncos win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 37.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game). The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game).
Expect Chargers to find it hard going: Broncos' strong defense (7th) outranks Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Broncos puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 11 and Broncos by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Broncos by about 3.
More: Chargers schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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