Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bills 24, Jets 19 at Highmark Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Bills win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 42.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game). The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game).
Bills' below-average defense (20th) should limit Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) against Jets' below-average defense (23rd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 12 and Bills by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Bills get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bills by about 2.2.
More: Jets schedule · Bills schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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