Matchup analysis
Our model projects Giants 19, Eagles 18 at MetLife Stadium in Week 18. That is a genuine toss-up: Giants win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 36.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game). The Giants are 2-1, scoring 15.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3 per game).
Expect Eagles to find it hard going: Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) outranks Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense). Eagles' strong defense (8th) should limit Giants' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 16 and Giants by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Eagles would be favoured by 1.5.
More: Eagles schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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