Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 22, Steelers 19 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Ravens win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 40.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game). The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) should limit Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) against Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 13 and Ravens by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ravens by about 1.
More: Steelers schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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