Matchup analysis
Our model projects 49ers 24, Cardinals 23 at State Farm Stadium in Week 18. That is a genuine toss-up: 49ers win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 46.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game). The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: 49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (28th). 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) should limit Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between 49ers by 18 and Cardinals by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The 49ers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
More: 49ers schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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