Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 22, Rams 19 at SoFi Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Seahawks win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 40.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game). The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) meets Rams' strong defense (9th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Seahawks puts up. Expect Rams to find it hard going: Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) outranks Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Seahawks by 20 and Rams by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Seahawks are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
More: Seahawks schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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