Matchup analysis
Our model projects Saints 24, Buccaneers 20 at Caesars Superdome in Week 18. That is a lean: Saints win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.1 points and 44.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game). The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buccaneers puts up. Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) meets Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Saints puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 13 and Saints by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Saints by about 1.5.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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