Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 24, Titans 18 at Reliant Stadium in Week 18. That is a solid edge: Texans win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6 points and 42 combined points.
The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game). The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game).
Texans' strong defense (6th) should limit Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) against Titans' below-average defense (26th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 11 and Texans by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texans by about 3.4.
More: Titans schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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