Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eagles 27, Commanders 20 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Eagles win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6 points and 46.9 combined points.
The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game).
Expect Commanders to find it hard going: Eagles' strong defense (8th) outranks Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense). Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Commanders' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Eagles' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Commanders by 11 and Eagles by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eagles by about 3.4. The game is on FOX.
Result: Commanders 22, Eagles 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4 points and the total by 0.9.
More: Commanders schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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