Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Patriots 25, Steelers 19 at Gillette Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Patriots win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and 43.4 combined points.
The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game). The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game).
Patriots' elite defense (3rd) should limit Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Expect Patriots to find it hard going: Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) outranks Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 11 and Patriots by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 3.3. The game is on CBS.
Result: Steelers 3, Patriots 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.1 points and the total by 20.4.
More: Steelers schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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