Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Seahawks 26, Commanders 18 at Northwest Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Seahawks win about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.1 points and 43.9 combined points.
The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game). The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Commanders' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Seahawks' projected points come from. Expect Commanders to find it hard going: Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) outranks Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Seahawks by 24 and Commanders by 10 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Seahawks are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
Result: Seahawks 31, Commanders 33. Commanders won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.1 points).
More: Seahawks schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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