Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jaguars 22, Patriots 21 at EverBank Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Jaguars win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 42.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game). The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game).
Jaguars' strong defense (4th) should limit Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense). Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) meets Patriots' elite defense (3rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jaguars puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 16 and Jaguars by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Jaguars get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Patriots would be favoured by 1.6. The game is on CBS.
Result: Patriots 6, Jaguars 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 28 points and the total by 1.5.
More: Patriots schedule · Jaguars schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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