Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 27, Commanders 26 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Colts win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 52.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game). The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (31st). Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (30th); that mismatch is where most of Commanders' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 17 and Commanders by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Colts are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NFL Net.
More: Colts schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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