Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bills 26, Patriots 22 at Highmark Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Bills win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 47.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game). The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game).
Bills' below-average defense (20th) should limit Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense). Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) meets Patriots' elite defense (3rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bills puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 12 and Bills by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Bills get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bills by about 2.1. The game is on CBS.
More: Patriots schedule · Bills schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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