Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 23, Raiders 20 at Gillette Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Patriots win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 43.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game). The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game).
Patriots' elite defense (3rd) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Expect Patriots to find it hard going: Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) outranks Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 13 and Patriots by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 1. The game is on CBS.
More: Raiders schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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