Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 22, Jets 17 at Gillette Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Patriots win about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.1 points and 38.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game). The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game).
Expect Jets to find it hard going: Patriots' elite defense (3rd) outranks Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) meets Jets' below-average defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Patriots puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 12 and Patriots by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 2.5. The game is on CBS.
More: Jets schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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