Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 23, Commanders 20 at Northwest Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Rams win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 43.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (31st). Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) meets Rams' strong defense (9th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Commanders puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 20 and Commanders by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Rams are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Rams schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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