Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 22, Packers 16 at Gillette Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Patriots win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and 37.6 combined points.
The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game). The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game).
Expect Packers to find it hard going: Patriots' elite defense (3rd) outranks Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense). Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) meets Packers' below-average defense (22nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Patriots puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 11 and Patriots by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 3.3. The game is on FOX.
More: Packers schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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