Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 21, Lions 19 at FC Bayern Munich Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Patriots win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 40.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game). The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Lions' struggling defense (29th); that mismatch is where most of Patriots' projected points come from. Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) meets Patriots' elite defense (3rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Lions puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 19 and Lions by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Patriots are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Patriots schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 10 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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