Matchup analysis
Our model projects Commanders 23, Bengals 23 at Northwest Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Commanders win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 45.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game). The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (31st). Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bengals' below-average defense (24th); that mismatch is where most of Commanders' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 16 and Commanders by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bengals would be favoured by 2.1. The game is on ESPN.
More: Bengals schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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