Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cardinals 25, Commanders 23 at State Farm Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Cardinals win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 47.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (28th). Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Commanders' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Cardinals' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Commanders by 15 and Cardinals by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Commanders would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on FOX.
More: Commanders schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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