Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 20, Chargers 17 at SoFi Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Patriots win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3 points and 37.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game). The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game).
Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) should limit Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense). Expect Chargers to find it hard going: Patriots' elite defense (3rd) outranks Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 20 and Chargers by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Chargers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Patriots are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
More: Patriots schedule · Chargers schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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