Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 21, Bills 19 at Gillette Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Patriots win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 39.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game). The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game).
Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) meets Patriots' elite defense (3rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bills puts up. Expect Patriots to find it hard going: Bills' below-average defense (20th) outranks Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 15 and Patriots by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bills would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on CBS.
More: Bills schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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