Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 18, Patriots 16 at Gillette Stadium in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Vikings win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 34 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game). The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game).
Patriots' elite defense (3rd) should limit Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense). Expect Patriots to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 19 and Patriots by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Vikings schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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