Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 22, Commanders 20 at Northwest Stadium in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Texans win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 41.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game). The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (31st). Texans' strong defense (6th) should limit Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 19 and Commanders by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Texans are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Texans schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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