Matchup analysis
Our model projects Commanders 22, Falcons 20 at Northwest Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Commanders win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.7 points and 42.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Commanders' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Falcons' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) against Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 15 and Commanders by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Falcons would be favoured by 0.9. The game is on FOX.
More: Falcons schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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