Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 18, Patriots 17 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Chiefs win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 35.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game). The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game).
Expect Patriots to find it hard going: Chiefs' strong defense (5th) outranks Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense). Patriots' elite defense (3rd) should limit Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 16 and Chiefs by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Patriots would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on ESPN / ABC.
More: Patriots schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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