Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 26, Commanders 16 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 16. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.4 points and 41.8 combined points.
The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game).
Vikings' elite defense (1st) should limit Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (31st).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Commanders by 8 and Vikings by 26 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 6.8.
More: Commanders schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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