Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jets 19, Patriots 19 at MetLife Stadium in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Jets win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 38.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game). The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game).
Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) meets Jets' below-average defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Patriots puts up. Patriots' elite defense (3rd) should limit Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 17 and Jets by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Patriots would be favoured by 2.5. The game is on CBS.
More: Patriots schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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