Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 18, Broncos 18 at Gillette Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Patriots win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0 points and 36.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game). The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game).
Expect Broncos to find it hard going: Patriots' elite defense (3rd) outranks Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense). Broncos' strong defense (7th) should limit Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 17 and Patriots by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Broncos would be favoured by 2.6.
More: Broncos schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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