Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 26, Commanders 16 at EverBank Stadium in Week 17. That is a solid edge: Jaguars win about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.7 points and 41.9 combined points.
The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game).
Expect Commanders to find it hard going: Jaguars' strong defense (4th) outranks Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense). Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Commanders' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Jaguars' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Commanders by 7 and Jaguars by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Jaguars get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jaguars by about 7.1.
More: Commanders schedule · Jaguars schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.