Matchup analysis
Our model projects Commanders 25, Cowboys 23 at Northwest Stadium in Week 18. That is a genuine toss-up: Commanders win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game). The Commanders are 1-2, scoring 25 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (31st). Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Commanders' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 15 and Commanders by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Cowboys would be favoured by 0.5.
More: Cowboys schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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