Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 22, Dolphins 15 at Gillette Stadium in Week 18. That is a solid edge: Patriots win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 37 combined points.
The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game). The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game).
Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Patriots' elite defense (3rd) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) meets Dolphins' below-average defense (25th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Patriots puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 9 and Patriots by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 5.2.
More: Dolphins schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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